I just finished reading a great book, "Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer " by Duncan Watts. First of all it confirms the eternal sceptic that I am.
My summary of that book is that it warns us to be careful when we think we understand why something happened (why did that startup succeed? why did that product fail? why does that medicine work? why does that treatment not appear to work? why did he get sick? why did he get well?)
The danger is greatest when our explanation seems to be just 'common sense.'
There are so many unknowns, coincidental factors, chance outcomes, that it behooves us to stop andquestion our assumptions, beliefs and common sense.
Remember: Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer. Read the book!